Flexibility and storage requirements in the Austrian energy system
Cooperation project in the context of the zusammEn2040 initiative
Classification of the study
This study was conducted as part of a collaborative project between Austrian Power Grid (APG), the Austrian Photovoltaic Association, Graz University of Technology, and d-fine. The methodological framework was based on a sector-coupled European energy system model that APG uses both operationally and within the zusammEn2040 initiative, which is continuously being refined. With the help of this model, investments in the future energy system can be analyzed and evaluated under the premise of minimum system costs.
Background
Electrification is a core pillar of the rapidly advancing energy transformation. The increasing demand for green electricity by new consumers in industry, heating and hot water supply, as well as transportation and mobility, requires an ambitious expansion of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and PV. To integrate these volatile power generation technologies into the system, there is an increasing need to shift the availability of energy from times of surplus production to hours of high demand. Moreover, new flexibility options must be created to facilitate the phase-out of fossil fuels.
Objective and central questions
The basis for this study’s analyses is a holistic view of a resilient energy system. Thus, the underlying modeling integrates all sectors and energy sources of the energy system. The analyses focus on the storage and flexibility requirements in Austria's future electricity system. The years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are modeled in the study, with regional differentiation at a federal province level, which subsequently serves as the basis for analyses at district level. This approach allows for the consideration of regional variations and specific transportation needs. The study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the required storage capacities, sector coupling technologies, and increased transportation options to meet short-, medium-, and long-term flexibility demands in the future energy system.
The following key research questions were analyzed:
How high is the short-, medium-, and long-term need for flexibility and storage in the future energy system, and which technologies will cover this demand?
What is the system-wide impact of extreme scenarios such as limited expansion options for transport corridors or periods of cold dark doldrums?
What role will household, commercial, and industrial battery storage systems play in the future, and how are they distributed within Austria?
The most important results at a glance
Storage options are essential for the success of the system transformation
With a total of 8.7 GW (2.7 GW large-scale storage and 6 GW small-scale storage systems), battery storage systems are becoming the cornerstone for short-term decentralized flexibilities in Austria. As flexible all-rounders, pumped storage systems are becoming increasingly important in the energy system.
The national and international electricity transport will almost double by 2040
Austria's connection to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area is becoming increasingly important due to the energy transformation, ongoing electrification, and the expansion of renewable electricity generation. The national and international electricity transport will almost double by 2040. An adequately ambitious grid expansion is the basic prerequisite for this development.
The transmission grid is a crucial flexibility option, and grid expansion will ultimately stabilize energy costs in the long term.
Expanding the electricity grid is essential for enabling the import of low-cost electricity and integrating renewable energy sources. Without further measures beyond the current grid development plan, electricity prices will rise by an average of EUR 13 per MWh by 2050 compared to a scenario with efficient grid expansion. Given the projected electricity demand in 2050, this shortfall in transmission capacity could result in additional annual costs of up to EUR 1.6 billion.
System-wide price transparency is an incentive for system-supporting behavior
If there is system-wide price transparency, intelligent consumers follow dynamic electricity prices and shift loads during periods of high renewable production. With far-reaching system-wide price transparency, the players can react dynamically to price signals and control the management of systems in line with the requirements of the overall system.
A secure energy supply is guaranteed even during extreme weather events
Even during dark doldrums and droughts, the energy supply can be maintained in a decarbonized energy system. Bottlenecks are bridged by the coordinated use of controllable thermal power plants, targeted load management, and the purchase of electricity from neighboring countries. To achieve this, spatial, temporal, and cross-sector flexibilities must be taken into account and used in a coordinated manner.
The need for intraday shifting of electrical energy will increase massively
As electrification progresses, the installed electricity generation capacity will roughly triple by 2040. Renewable generation plants with a volatile generation profile will account for a large proportion of the expansion. To ensure a cost-efficient energy supply, energy volumes must be shifted from times of surplus production to times of high demand. This need for shifting loads will increase six-fold by 2040, particularly within one day - i.e., intraday. The need for seasonal shifting will double by then.