Capacity margin is the difference between the reliably available generation capacity and the peak load.
For Austria, the following forecast values were predicted within the scope of the "Winter Outlook Report 2019/2020" of the ENTSO-E:
For every week in the period from December 2019 to March 2020 a different capacity margin was calculated. Thus, the shown values correspond to the week with the lowest capacity margin. It should be noted, that the power plants "Upper Ill-Lünersee" of Illwerke AG (with an installed capacity of approximately 1.7 GW) and the power plant “Kühtai/Silz” (with an installed capacity of approximately 0.8 GW) are not included. Although those lie on Austrian territory, they are assigned to the German control block.
The limited working capacity of the hydro (pumped)-storage power plants is taken into account by assuming average precipitation and a normal pumping behavior. Afterwards, the determined energy is divided by the standard operating hours of (pumped)-storage power plants. This approach ensures a sustainable storage management throughout the year.
The value of the Remaining capacity means that there is no need for imports for Austria under normal conditions.
Extreme situations (e.g. floods or droughts) as well as future market related power plant shutdowns and mothballing (as far as not known at the time of drawing the report) are not taken into account in this analysis. Thus, under such conditions, the remaining capacity would decrease and Austria would depend on imports (more information about the shown values are provided “under serve conditions” in the “Winter Outlook Reports 2019/2020”; see the following link).
Since 2016 the ENTSO-E Mid-term adequacy forecast report (MAF) has resulted in a probabilistic calculation of the generation adequacy (for more information, see the following link).
*Please note: due to the different calculation methods, the values are not comparable to those from previous years.