Capacity margin is the difference between the reliably available generation capacity and the peak load.
For Austria, the following forecast values were predicted within the scope of the "Winter Outlook Report 2017/2018" of the ENTSO-E:
For every week in the period from December 2018 to March 2019 a different capacity margin was calculated. Thus, the values shown correspond to the week with the lowest capacity margin. It should be noted that the power plants "Upper Ill-Lünersee" of Illwerke AG (with an installed capacity of approximately 1.7 GW) and the power plant “Kühtai/Silz” (with an installed capacity of approximately 0.8 GW) are not included. Although those are located in Austrian territory, they are assigned to the German control block.
The limited working capacity of the hydro (pumped) storage power plants is taken into account by assuming average precipitation and normal pumping behavior. Afterwards, the energy determined is divided by the standard operating hours of (pumped) storage power plants. This approach ensures sustainable storage management throughout the year.
The negative value of the remaining capacity means that there is a visible need for imports in this week. Due to the high number of interconnecting tie lines there is no risk of having a generation adequacy issue in Austria.
Extreme situations (e.g. floods or droughts) as well as future market-related power plant shutdowns and mothballing (as far as not known at the time the report was being prepared) are not taken into account in this analysis. Thus, under such conditions, the remaining capacity could be decreased (more information about the values shown is provided “under serve conditions” in the “Winter Outlook Reports 2018/2019”; see the following link).
Since 2016 the ENTSO-E Mid-term adequacy forecast report (MAF) has resulted in a probabilistic calculation of the generation adequacy (for more information, see the following link).
*Please note: due to the different calculation methods, the values in 2019 are not comparable with those from previous years.