A forecast or prediction is based on facts, methodologies (measurements, time series analyses or simulations) and prognoses that represent the probability of occurrence of one or more events.
The most common form of forecasting is weather forecasting, which also plays an important role in the energy industry. Thus a good forecast of the volatility of renewables, often in the form of generation forecasts – both short- and long-term – is important for profitable and secure system operation. Forecasting models that cover days, weeks and even months are used to estimate actual generation output to create an optimal power generation schedule.
The generation forecasts generally include all planned net power plant feed-ins within a control area. They are based in principle on the reported transmission schedules, with the wind and solar forecasts being calculated by APG separately using specific forecast models based on meteorological input data.